Foto: Cody Board

Future mortality: Integrating smoking, alcohol, and obesity

It is crucial to have accurate estimates of future life expectancy to inform social security, pension, and insurance schemes, public policies, and healthcare planning. However, estimates of future mortality are often inaccurate because they are based on simple extrapolations of past trends. Consequently, they neglect the long-term impacts of ‘lifestyle epidemics’, such as smoking, alcohol, and obesity, which also differ across sexes, generations, and countries. In addition, current estimates do not incorporate the delay in ageing, meaning that the 90-year-olds of today roughly resemble the 80-year-olds of the past.

In this project, we aim to improve future mortality estimates for Europe by developing a novel projection methodology which integrates to-be-generated insights on past mortality trends about (a) the impact of the ‘epidemics’ of smoking, alcohol, and obesity on mortality trends; and (b) the shifts in the age-at-death distribution.

More information on the project is available on the project website: This project is funded by a VIDI grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).

Featured publications

Janssen, F. (2019 ),
Similarities and differences in the mortality impact of the smoking epidemic in low-mortality countries, 1950-2014. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, ntz154. [URL]
Vidra, N. (2019),
The obesity epidemic in Europe: Assessing the past and current mortality burden and the future of obesity. PhD thesis. University of Groningen. 190 p. [URL]
Stoeldraijer, L. (2019),
Mortality forecasting in the context of non-linear past mortality trends: An evaluation. PhD Thesis, University of Groningen. 237 p. [URL]
Trias-Llimós, S. (2019),
Alcohol-attributable mortality in Europe: Past trends and their effects on overall mortality variations. PhD Thesis, University of Groningen. 169 p. [URL]
Janssen, F. (2018),
Advances in mortality forecasting: Introduction. Genus 74 (21): 1-12. [URL]
Beer, J.A.A. de, Bardoutsos, A. & Janssen, F. (2017),
Maximum human lifespan may increase to 125 years. Nature 546 (7660): E16-E20. [URL]

Other project publications are available on the Future Mortality project website:

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